ํ™˜์œจ ์กฐ์ž‘ ํ–ˆ๋‚˜ ์•ˆํ–ˆ๋‚˜
2020๋…„ 5์›” 28์ผ (๋ชฉ)

์ˆœ๋ชจ๋‹!
์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ๋„ ๋๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋„ค์š”
์ดํ‹€๋งŒ ๋” ํ™”์ดํŒ…!๐ŸŸ
.
์˜ค๋Š˜์˜ ํ•œ๋งˆ๋”” ๐Ÿ’ญ

"
The key is to wait. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing."

David Tepper (Founder of Appaloosa Management)

techcrunch
#์ฒซ_๋ฏผ๊ฐ„_์œ ์ธ์šฐ์ฃผ์„  #๊ธฐ์ƒ์•…ํ™”๋กœ_์ผ์ •์—ฐ๊ธฐ #๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์šฐ์ฃผ์‹œ๋Œ€_๊ธฐ๋Œ€์ฃผ

[๊ด€๋ จ ์ˆœ์‚ด] ์šฐ์ฃผ์—์„œ๋„ ๋ฐ•๋น™, ๋ฒ ์กฐ์Šค vs ๋จธ์Šคํฌ ๐Ÿš€
Macro ๋ธŒ๋ฆฌํ•‘ 

(๋‰ด์š•์žฅ ์ข…๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ์ค€)
๊ธˆ์œต์‹œ์žฅ ์ผ์ผ ๊ฒฐ์‚ฐ ๐ŸŒ (์‹œ์žฅ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€, ํ˜„์‹ค์ด ๋์Œ ํ•˜๋Š” ์†Œ๋ง๐Ÿ™๐Ÿป)

  1. ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜ ์ •์ ์€ ์ง€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ธ์‹ ํ™•์‚ฐ. ์ฆ์‹œ ์ž์ฒด๋„ up์ด์ง€๋งŒ, ์ข…๋ชฉ๋ณ„๋กœ๋„ ๊ทธ๊ฐ„ ์•ฝ์„ธ์˜€๋˜ ํ•ญ๊ณต์ฃผยท์—ฌํ–‰์ฃผยท์€ํ–‰์ฃผ ์œ„์ฃผ๋กœ ๊ฐ•์„ธ vs ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ์ฃผ๋“ค์€ ์ด์ต์‹คํ˜„ ๋ชจ์Šต
  2. ์œ ๋กœ์กด, 7500์–ต ์œ ๋กœ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜ ํšŒ๋ณต๊ธฐ๊ธˆ ์กฐ์„ฑ, ์ด์— ์œ ๋กœ์กด ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋ถ„์—ด ์šฐ๋ ค (์ž ์‹œ) ํ•œ์ˆจ ๋Œ๋ฆผ & ์œ ๋กœ๋„ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋Œ€๋น„ up
  3. ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜ ํ™์ฝฉ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ณด์•ˆ๋ฒ• ๋ฒ•์ œํ™” ๊ฐ•ํ–‰ ์˜ˆ์ •. ์ด์— ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ์—ญ์™ธํ™˜์œจ (USDCNH; ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ฐ–์—์„œ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋˜๋Š” ํ™˜์œจ)์€ ์•ฝ์„ธ, ๊ฐ„๋ฐค์— ์ž‘๋…„ 9์›” ์ดˆ ์ดํ›„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์น˜ ๊ฐฑ์‹ 
โ˜๏ธ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์ž ๊น   ๋ฏธยท์ค‘ ๊ด€๊ณ„์˜ key, ํ™˜์œจ ์ „์Ÿ ๐Ÿผ vs ๐Ÿฆ…  

giphy
  • ๋ฏธยท์ค‘ ๊ฐ„ ์‹ ๊ฒฝ์ „, ๋‚ ๋กœ ๊ฒฉํ•ด์ง€๋Š” ์ค‘. '์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜ ์ฑ…์ž„๋ก ยทํ™์ฝฉ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ณด์•ˆ๋ฒ•ยท1๋‹จ๊ณ„ ๋ฌด์—ญํ•ฉ์˜ ์ดํ–‰' ์œผ๋กœ ์‹ฌํ™”๋œ ๊ฐˆ๋“ฑ โ†’ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ํ™˜์œจ ์ „์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ๋ป—์–ด๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋Š” ์–‘์ƒ
  • ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์ธ์œ„์  ์™ธํ™˜์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฐœ์ž… & ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๋ถˆ๊ณต์ • ๋ฌด์—ญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ํฐ ํ”ผํ•ด๋ฅผ ์ž…ํ˜”๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ž„๊ธฐ๋‚ด๋‚ด ์ฃผ์žฅ. ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋Œ€๋น„ ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ํ™˜์œจ์€ ๋ฏธยท์ค‘ ๊ด€๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•œ ๋ฐ”๋กœ๋ฏธํ„ฐ 
  • ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ •๋ง ๊ฐœ์ž… ํ–ˆ์„๊นŒ? ๋‹น์—ฐํžˆ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋“ ์ง€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ. ๊ตฌ๋‘๊ฐœ์ž…ยท์—ญ๋‚ดํ™˜์œจ ๊ณ ์‹œยท์ฑ„๊ถŒ๋ฐœํ–‰ยท์—ญ์™ธ๋งˆ์ผ“ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ยท์„ ๋ฌผํ™˜๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๊ธˆ ๋ถ€๊ณผ ๋“ฑ, ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๋ผ์–ด๋“ค ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ๋งŽ์Œ 
  • ๋ฏธยท์ค‘ ๋ฌด์—ญ๊ฐˆ๋“ฑ์ด ํ•œ์ฐธ ์ฒจ์˜ˆํ–ˆ๋˜ 2018-19๋…„ ๋‹น์‹œ, ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ (๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋ฐ€๋•…์„ ์œ„ํ•ด) ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์  ๋งˆ์ง€๋…ธ์„ ์ธ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋‹น 7์œ„์•ˆ ์ง€์ผฐ์—ˆ์Œ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์‹œ์žฅ ํ๋ฆ„์— ๋งก๊ธฐ๋˜, ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ์•ฝ์„ธ ํ๋ฆ„์ด ๊ณผ๋„ํ•˜๋‹ค ํŒ๋‹จ or ์ค‘๊ตญ๋‹น๊ตญ์ด ์•ฝ์„ธ๋ฅผ ์šฉ์ธํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์—ฌ๋ก  ์ƒ๊ธฐ๋ฉด ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ฐœ์ž…
  • ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋‹ค์‹œ 7์œ„์•ˆ ๋šซ๊ณ  ์˜ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ„ ์ƒํ™ฉ, ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ฐœ์ž… ์˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ด€๊ฑด. ์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ์•ฝ์„ธ์˜ ๋“๊ณผ ์‹ค์„ ๋”ฐ์ ธ๋ณด๋ฉด, ์‹ค์ด ๋” ๋งŽ์•„๋ณด์ž„
    1) ๋Œ€๋ฏธ ๊ด€๊ณ„ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ, 
    ํŠนํžˆ ๋ฏธ ์žฌ๋ฌด๋ถ€ํ•œํ…Œ ํ™˜์œจ์กฐ์ž‘๊ตญ์œผ๋กœ ๋˜ ์ฐํžˆ๋ฉด ํ”ผ๊ณคํ•ด์ง
    2) ์ค‘๊ตญ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์˜ ์™ธ์ฑ„๋ถ€๋‹ด Up;
    3) ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ํˆฌ์ž๋œ ์™ธ๊ตญ์ž๋ณธ, ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ดํƒˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ (2015๋…„์— ๊ฒช์–ด๋ด„, ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ๊ธฐ์Šต์ ˆํ•˜ โ†’ 4๊ฐœ์›”๋งŒ์— 1์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ดํƒˆ)
    4) ๊ธฐ์กด์—๋Š” ์œ„์•ˆํ™” 
    ์•ฝ์„ธ๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋ฐœ ๊ด€์„ธ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ ํก์ˆ˜์— ๋„์›€, but ์ง€๊ธˆ๊ฐ™์€ ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜๋ฐœ ๊ตญ์ œ ๊ต์—ญ ์–ผ์ŒํŒ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์—… ํ˜œํƒ๋„ ๋ฏธ๋ฏธ (๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ๊ตณ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋„๋ฐœํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€..)
  • ์›ํ™” & ์œ„์•ˆํ™”์˜ ๋™์กฐํ™” ํ˜„์ƒ, 2016๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋†’์•„์ ธ ์žˆ์Œ. ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ด ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์› ํ™˜์œจ ๋ฐ ์™ธ๊ตญ์ธ ํˆฌ์ž ๋™ํ–ฅ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ค‘์š”
* ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ํ™˜์œจ์€ CNY (์—ญ๋‚ดํ™˜์œจ; ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ณธํ† ์—์„œ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜) vs CNH (์—ญ์™ธํ™˜์œจ; ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ณธํ†  ์ด์™ธ์˜ ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜)๋กœ ๋‚˜๋‰จ. ์ค‘์•™์€ํ–‰ (PBOC; ์ธ๋ฏผ์€ํ–‰)์—์„œ ๋งค์ผ ์˜ค์ „ ๊ธฐ์ค€ํ™˜์œจ ๋ฐœํ‘œ (=CNY fixing), ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ํ™˜์œจ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ค€์ 

* CNY๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ค€ํ™˜์œจ ๋Œ€๋น„ 2%๋ฒ”์œ„ ๋‚ด์—์„œ๋งŒ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ vs CNH๋Š” ํ†ต์ œ ๋”ฐ๋กœ ์—†์ด ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์‹œ์žฅ ์ˆ˜๊ธ‰์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๊ฒฐ์ •, ์ด์— ๋ณ€๋™ํญ์ด ๋” ํผ (ํ™์ฝฉ์—์„œ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋˜๋Š” ์œ„์•ˆํ™”๋„ CNH). ๋Œ€๋‚ด์™ธ ์ด์Šˆ๊ฐ€ ์ปค์งˆ์ˆ˜๋ก CNY-CNH ํ™˜์œจ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ดด๋ฆฌ ์ฆํญ
ํˆฌ์ž์€ํ–‰ ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ํ•œ ์กฐ๊ฐ ๐Ÿ”– 
๊ณจ๋“œ๋งŒ์‚ญ์Šค ์ด๋ฒˆ ์ฃผ ์œ„์•ˆํ™” ๋ทฐ 
CNY: Moving closer to "risk case" scenarios.  (๊ด€๋ จ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ)

Disputes between the US and China broadened to a wider range of issues this week, moving us closer to "risk case" scenarios and suggesting upside to our existing 3m USD/CNY target of 7.15. 

First, the US Senate passed a bill that would require Chinese companies to be delisted from US stock exchanges if they do not meet US accounting standards; it also would require these firms to certify that they are not controlled by a foreign government. 

Second, Chinese officials tabled legislation at the National People's Congress (NPC) which would revise national security-related elements of Hong Kong's Basic Law without going through Hong Kong's legislature. Notably, the US State Department is due to soon issue an annual report on whether Hong Kong remains "autonomous" from the Mainland. 

Third, China responded negatively to congratulatory remarks from US Secretary of State Pompeo to Taiwan President Tsai, following her inauguration last week. 

Likely reflecting these developments, FX markets have begun to price in higher risk premia for USD/CNY and other currencies in the region; USD/CNH briefly traded above 7.15 and HKD 12m forward points spiked 285pts to 7.83 on Friday

While we are not revising our Asia FX forecasts at this time, we would continue to encourage investors to add portfolio hedges for the risk that these disputes result in greater currency volatility in the region.
Goldman Sachs Research
๋ผˆ ์žˆ๋Š” Chart ๐Ÿ˜ฎ
์œ„์•ˆํ™” ๊ธฐ์ค€ํ™˜์œจ ์‚ฐ์ •์‹œ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ์ง€ํ‘œ (๋ผ๊ณ  ์“ฐ๊ณ , ๋ฒ ์ผ์— ์‹ธ์ธ ๋ธ”๋ž™๋ฐ•์Šค๋ผ๊ณ  ์ฝ์Œ) 
* ๋งˆ์ด๋„ˆ์Šค ํญ์ด ํด์ˆ˜๋ก ๊ฐœ์ž… ์š”์ธ์ด ์ปค์ง
 (counter-cyclical factor; ์—ญ์ฃผ๊ธฐ ์กฐ์ ˆ ์š”์†Œ)

washington post
์˜ค๋Š˜์˜ ์ž๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋ฐœ Tip ๐Ÿ’ฌ 

"๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ๊ธ‰์ง„์ , ๊ณ ๋ฏผ์€ ์ ์ง„์ "๐Ÿƒ

  • ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ˜์‹ ์„ ๊ฟˆ๊พธ๋”๋ผ๋„, ์ผ๋‹จ ํ˜„์žฌ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ• ์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ณ ๋ฏผ์ด ์šฐ์„   
  • ๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์น˜์—ดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ณ ๋ฏผํ•˜๋‹ค ๋ณด๋ฉด, ์–ด๋Š์ˆœ๊ฐ„ ํฐ ๋„์•ฝ์œผ๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋  ๊ฒƒ!
๊ฐ•์—ฐ/์„ธ๋ฏธ๋‚˜ 
์Šคํƒ€ํŠธ์—… / ๊ธฐ์—…
  • ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋‘๊ธฐ (๋์€ ์–ธ์ œ์ฏค?)
์ฑ„์šฉ๊ณต๊ณ  ๐Ÿ’ช
์ˆœ์‚ด ๊ตฌ์ง์ž๋ถ„๋“ค์˜ ๋ฌธ์˜๋Š” ์—ฌ๊ธฐ๋กœ ๋ณด๋‚ด์ฃผ์„ธ์š” :) 
๋งž๋Š” ์ž๋ฆฌ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์—๋””ํ„ฐ๋“ค์ด ์—ฐ๋ฝ ๋“œ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
(์—๋””ํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ต ์—†๋”๋ผ๋„ ๊ณ„์† ํ™•์ธ ์ค‘!)
๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ฑ„์šฉ๊ณต๊ณ  โฑ๏ธ
๊ธˆ์œต๊ถŒ
์Šคํƒ€ํŠธ์—… / ๊ธฐ์—…
ํ•ด์™ธ ์ฑ„์šฉ๊ณต๊ณ  ๐ŸŒ
๊ธˆ์œต๊ถŒ
์Šคํƒ€ํŠธ์—… / ๊ธฐ์—…
์ˆœ์‚ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌํ•‘์— ์ œํœด ๋ฌธ์˜ ๐Ÿค
์นœ๊ตฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๊ตฌ๋… ์ถ”์ฒœํ•˜๊ธฐ
๐Ÿ‘‰
https://bit.ly/2Otw0Nu

์˜ค๋Š˜์ž ๊ณต์œ  ๋งํฌ
๐Ÿ‘‰ https://stib.ee/PSC2
์ˆœ์‚ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌํ•‘, ์•ˆ์ „ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ตฌ๋…ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฒ•!

โ‘  ์ด๋ฉ”์ผ ์ฃผ์†Œ๋ก์— 'team@soonsal.com' ๋“ฑ๋ก & ์ด๋ฉ”์ผ ํ•„ํ„ฐ ์„ค์ •! (์˜์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๊ธฐ)
โ‘ก ๊ทธ๋ž˜๋„ ์•ˆ ๋ณด์ด๋ฉด, ๊ด‘๊ณ  (Promotion) ๋ฉ”์ผํ•จ ํ™•์ธ
โ‘ข ๊ทธ๋ž˜๋„ ์•ˆ ์˜จ๋‹ค? ์ŠคํŒธ (Spam) ๋ฉ”์ผํ•จ ํ™•์ธ
โ‘ฃ ์–ด๋””์—๋„ ์—†๋‹ค? ์ˆœ์‚ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌํ•‘์— ์ œ๋ณด!

์ž˜ ํ™•์ธํ•˜์…”์„œ, ์ˆœ์‚ด๋ธŒ๋ฆฌํ•‘์ด ๊ด‘๊ณ  (Promotion) ๋ฉ”์ผํ•จ์— ๊ฐ‡ํžˆ๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๋ง‰์•„์ฃผ์„ธ์š”๐Ÿ™ 
(์ฃผ) ์ˆœ์‚ด - team@soonsal.com
์„œ์šธ์‹œ ๊ฐ•๋‚จ๊ตฌ ํ…Œํ—ค๋ž€๋กœ 328
์ˆ˜์‹ ๊ฑฐ๋ถ€ Unsubscribe

Copyright โ“’ Soonsal Co., Ltd. 2019-2020